Main
Bantamweight
Urijah Faber vs Scott Jorgensen
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Scott Jorgensen
90%
10%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
66"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
36-11
Career record
Δ 19 pp
16-12
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 4
Faber: 93 sig / 4 TD ·
Jorgensen: 73 sig / 1 TD
Urijah Faber
Scott Jorgensen
45
Sig strikes landed
39
106
Sig strikes attempted
95
64
Total strikes landed
52
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.1
3.2
Takedowns attempted
4.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
125s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
50%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
25%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
36-11
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
—
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Scott Jorgensen
"Young Guns"
16-12
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lesn…
—