Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tor Troeng
Adam Cella
90%
10%
Why
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Troeng: 6 sig / 1 TD ·
Cella: 2 sig / 0 TD
Tor Troeng
Adam Cella
47
Sig strikes landed
40
112
Sig strikes attempted
105
62
Total strikes landed
49
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
156s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
39%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Tor Troeng
"The Hammer"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
Adam Cella
"El Naturel"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Age
28