Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Chris Spang
Adlan Amagov
37%
63%
Why
25
Age
Δ 1y
26
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Spang: 5 sig / 0 TD ·
Amagov: 38 sig / 6 TD
Chris Spang
Adlan Amagov
33
Sig strikes landed
37
73
Sig strikes attempted
78
41
Total strikes landed
56
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
87s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Chris Spang
"The Kiss"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
Blue corner
Adlan Amagov
"Borz"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26