Prelims1
Middleweight
Michael Kuiper vs Tom Lawlor
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi
·Ericsson Globe
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michael Kuiper
Tom Lawlor
80%
20%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
24
Age
Δ 6y
30
16-5
Career record
Δ 17 pp
10-7
W1
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Kuiper: 14 sig / 3 TD ·
Lawlor: 7 sig / 0 TD
Michael Kuiper
Tom Lawlor
36
Sig strikes landed
30
72
Sig strikes attempted
66
53
Total strikes landed
43
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.1
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
146s
Control time
144s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Kuiper
16-5
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
Blue corner
L1
Tom Lawlor
"Filthy"
10-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 2-4
Last 5
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—