Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Papy Abedi
Besam Yousef
53%
47%
Why
35
Age
Δ 7y
28
10-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
7-5
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Abedi: 53 sig / 4 TD ·
Yousef: 43 sig / 2 TD
Papy Abedi
Besam Yousef
29
Sig strikes landed
31
52
Sig strikes attempted
49
48
Total strikes landed
40
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.3
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
162s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
22%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Papy Abedi
"Makambo"
10-5
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
L
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—
Blue corner
L1
Besam Yousef
7-5
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—