Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Ben Alloway
Ryan LaFlare
51%
49%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 3y
30
W1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Alloway: 9 sig / 1 TD ·
LaFlare: 37 sig / 6 TD
Ben Alloway
Ryan LaFlare
28
Sig strikes landed
19
60
Sig strikes attempted
43
36
Total strikes landed
29
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
77s
Control time
103s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Ben Alloway
"Blanco"
19-8
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
Blue corner
Ryan LaFlare
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30