Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Diego Brandao
Pablo Garza
69%
31%
Why
64"
Reach
Δ 9"
73"
26
Age
Δ 4y
30
23-11
Career record
Δ 9 pp
13-4
W1
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Brandao: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Garza: 4 sig / 1 TD
Diego Brandao
Pablo Garza
27
Sig strikes landed
23
57
Sig strikes attempted
58
42
Total strikes landed
44
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.8
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
178s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
29%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Diego Brandao
"DB"
23-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W1
Pablo Garza
"The Scarecrow"
13-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—