Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Matt Mitrione
Philip De Fries
49%
51%
Why
82"
Reach
Δ 3"
79"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
12-6
Career record
Δ 4 pp
12-7
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mitrione: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
De Fries: 0 sig / 0 TD
Matt Mitrione
Philip De Fries
26
Sig strikes landed
25
36
Sig strikes attempted
57
38
Total strikes landed
39
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.5
0.3
Takedowns attempted
3.8
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
60s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
65%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Matt Mitrione
12-6
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
82"
Stance
Switch
Age
35
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
L
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—
Blue corner
L1
Philip De Fries
12-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 138: Leben vs Munoz
—