Prelims1
Featherweight
Chad Mendes vs Darren Elkins
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Chad Mendes
Darren Elkins
45%
55%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
28
Age
Δ 1y
29
19-5
Career record
Δ 8 pp
30-12
W2
Current streak
W5
5
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Mendes: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Elkins: 2 sig / 0 TD
Chad Mendes
Darren Elkins
27
Sig strikes landed
23
59
Sig strikes attempted
76
38
Total strikes landed
47
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.0
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
111s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
55%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Chad Mendes
"Money"
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Sotiropoulos vs Pear…
—
W
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 126: Silva vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
W5
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—