Main
Welterweight
Matt Brown vs Jordan Mein
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Jordan Mein
19%
81%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
32
Age
Δ 9y
24
27-19
Career record
Δ 14 pp
32-12
W4
Current streak
W1
9
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Brown: 40 sig / 0 TD ·
Mein: 24 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Jordan Mein
26
Sig strikes landed
30
58
Sig strikes attempted
78
36
Total strikes landed
44
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.5
2.1
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
87s
Control time
55s
Method
Decision
18%
KO/TKO
63%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
27-19
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
Blue corner
W1
Jordan Mein
"Young Gun"
32-12
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
—