Back to UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
Prelims1 Middleweight

Francis Carmont vs Lorenz Larkin

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez ·SAP Center at San Jose
Previous fight Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Francis Carmont
Lorenz Larkin
53% 47%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
32
Age
Δ 5y
27
W4
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Carmont: 12 sig / 2 TD · Larkin: 32 sig / 0 TD
Francis Carmont
Lorenz Larkin
32
Sig strikes landed
25
66
Sig strikes attempted
53
47
Total strikes landed
44
1.4
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.6
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
168s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
45%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
19%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W4

Francis Carmont

"Limitless"
26-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database 4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W UFC on FUEL TV: Gustafsson vs S…
—
W UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
Blue corner

Lorenz Larkin

"The Monsoon"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27