Main
Lightweight
Nate Diaz vs Josh Thomson
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Nate Diaz
Josh Thomson
61%
39%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 5"
71"
28
Age
Δ 7y
35
L1
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Diaz: 21 sig / 1 TD ·
Thomson: 36 sig / 1 TD
Nate Diaz
Josh Thomson
58
Sig strikes landed
51
131
Sig strikes attempted
106
82
Total strikes landed
61
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
81s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Nate Diaz
22-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
9 fights · 5-4
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
Josh Thomson
"The Punk"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35