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Frank Mir vs Daniel Cormier

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez ·SAP Center at San Jose
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Frank Mir
Daniel Cormier
33% 67%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 6"
72"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Mir: 24 sig / 0 TD · Cormier: 59 sig / 0 TD
Frank Mir
Daniel Cormier
21
Sig strikes landed
25
49
Sig strikes attempted
42
39
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.1
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
114s
Control time
182s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Frank Mir

18-12
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database 5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
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W UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
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W UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
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L UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
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Blue corner

Daniel Cormier

"DC"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34