🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Benson Henderson vs Gilbert Melendez
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez
·SAP Center at San Jose
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Benson Henderson
Gilbert Melendez
69%
31%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
29
Age
Δ 2y
31
W6
Current streak
—
6
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 5
Henderson: 68 sig / 0 TD ·
Melendez: 43 sig / 1 TD
Benson Henderson
Gilbert Melendez
61
Sig strikes landed
53
139
Sig strikes attempted
136
91
Total strikes landed
63
2.2
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.7
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
227s
Control time
72s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
19%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W6
Benson Henderson
"Smooth"
25-7
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 6-0
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Velasquez vs Dos Sa…
—
W
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle
—
Blue corner
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31