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Tim Means vs Jorge Masvidal

UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melendez ·SAP Center at San Jose
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Tim Means
Jorge Masvidal
51% 49%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
29
Age
Δ 1y
28
W2
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Means: 43 sig / 0 TD · Masvidal: 50 sig / 6 TD
Tim Means
Jorge Masvidal
48
Sig strikes landed
35
108
Sig strikes attempted
84
60
Total strikes landed
47
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.0
0.6
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
54s
Control time
106s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W2

Tim Means

"The Dirty Bird"
34-17-1 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
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W UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
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Blue corner

Jorge Masvidal

"Gamebred"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28