Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Leonard Garcia
Cody McKenzie
34%
66%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
34
Age
Δ 8y
25
18-14-1
Career record
Δ 5 pp
16-11
L4
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Garcia: 15 sig / 0 TD ·
McKenzie: 30 sig / 5 TD
Leonard Garcia
Cody McKenzie
36
Sig strikes landed
42
102
Sig strikes attempted
126
56
Total strikes landed
66
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.7
Takedowns attempted
5.1
0.40
Knockdowns
0.30
39s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
35%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L4
Leonard Garcia
"Bad Boy"
18-14-1
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 1-4
Last 5
L
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—
Blue corner
L1
Cody McKenzie
16-11
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP …
—