Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Bryan Caraway
Johnny Bedford
59%
41%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
71"
29
Age
Δ 2y
30
21-10
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-13-1
L1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Caraway: 43 sig / 3 TD ·
Bedford: 50 sig / 0 TD
Bryan Caraway
Johnny Bedford
33
Sig strikes landed
42
73
Sig strikes attempted
85
56
Total strikes landed
59
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.6
6.8
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
160s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
21-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W2
Johnny Bedford
"Brutal"
22-13-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—