Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Steven Siler
Kurt Holobaugh
58%
42%
Why
70"
Reach
70"
26
Age
Δ 0y
27
L1
Current streak
—
4
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Siler: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Holobaugh: 41 sig / 1 TD
Steven Siler
Kurt Holobaugh
43
Sig strikes landed
39
103
Sig strikes attempted
101
57
Total strikes landed
51
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.6
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
126s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Steven Siler
"Super"
29-17
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
W
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
Kurt Holobaugh
"The Hurt"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27