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Gian Villante vs Ovince Saint Preux

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen ·Prudential Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Gian Villante
Ovince Saint Preux
44% 56%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
80"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Villante: 28 sig / 0 TD · Saint Preux: 47 sig / 0 TD
Gian Villante
Ovince Saint Preux
36
Sig strikes landed
47
75
Sig strikes attempted
88
51
Total strikes landed
61
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
130s
Control time
127s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
13%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Gian Villante

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
Blue corner

Ovince Saint Preux

0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30