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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Sara McMann vs Sheila Gaff

UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen ·Prudential Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Lean Confidence: High
Sara McMann
Sheila Gaff
54% 46%
Why
33
Age
Δ 9y
23

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McMann: 8 sig / 2 TD · Gaff: 7 sig / 0 TD
Sara McMann
Sheila Gaff
38
Sig strikes landed
36
76
Sig strikes attempted
81
67
Total strikes landed
64
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
187s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
23%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Sara McMann

0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
Blue corner

Sheila Gaff

"The German Tank"
0-0
Career record
Height
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23