Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Phil Davis
Vinny Magalhaes
80%
20%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 4"
75"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
18-4
Career record
Δ 19 pp
15-9
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Davis: 79 sig / 0 TD ·
Magalhaes: 29 sig / 1 TD
Phil Davis
Vinny Magalhaes
30
Sig strikes landed
23
62
Sig strikes attempted
44
54
Total strikes landed
33
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.9
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
189s
Control time
125s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Phil Davis
"Mr. Wonderful"
18-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
8 fights · 6-1
Last 5
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—
W
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
W
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
—
Blue corner
W1
Vinny Magalhaes
"Pezao"
15-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—