Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Cheick Kongo
34%
66%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 9"
82"
37
Age
Δ 1y
38
23-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
28-10-2
W2
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Nelson: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Kongo: 4 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Cheick Kongo
18
Sig strikes landed
31
43
Sig strikes attempted
57
30
Total strikes landed
50
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
123s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
48%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carw…
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
W1
Cheick Kongo
28-10-2
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database
6 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
D
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—