Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
Issei Tamura
81%
19%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 4"
63"
27
Age
Δ 2y
29
19-5
Career record
Δ 27 pp
10-9
W2
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Dillashaw: 30 sig / 2 TD ·
Tamura: 11 sig / 0 TD
TJ Dillashaw
Issei Tamura
31
Sig strikes landed
13
53
Sig strikes attempted
31
52
Total strikes landed
22
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
3.9
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
224s
Control time
92s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
TJ Dillashaw
19-5
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
L1
Issei Tamura
10-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Munoz vs Weidman
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—