Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rick Story
Quinn Mulhern
46%
54%
Why
28
Age
28
L1
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Story: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Mulhern: 9 sig / 0 TD
Rick Story
Quinn Mulhern
40
Sig strikes landed
42
92
Sig strikes attempted
94
61
Total strikes landed
57
2.1
Takedowns landed
0.7
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
224s
Control time
91s
Method
Decision
61%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Rick Story
"The Horror"
19-10
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
29
In our database
9 fights · 6-3
Last 5
L
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
W
UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
—
L
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—
W
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
Quinn Mulhern
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29