Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Antonio Carvalho
Darren Elkins
28%
72%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
71"
34
Age
Δ 5y
29
16-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
30-12
W2
Current streak
W4
3
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Carvalho: 9 sig / 0 TD ·
Elkins: 14 sig / 0 TD
Antonio Carvalho
Darren Elkins
28
Sig strikes landed
40
81
Sig strikes attempted
100
46
Total strikes landed
56
0.5
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.3
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.40
72s
Control time
180s
Method
Decision
65%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Antonio Carvalho
"Pato"
16-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
—
Blue corner
W4
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3
—
W
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
—
L
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko
—