Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Daron Cruickshank
49%
51%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
19-9
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-10
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Makdessi: 86 sig / 0 TD ·
Cruickshank: 51 sig / 0 TD
John Makdessi
Daron Cruickshank
42
Sig strikes landed
45
93
Sig strikes attempted
105
54
Total strikes landed
59
0.2
Takedowns landed
1.3
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
32s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
John Makdessi
"The Bull"
19-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
Blue corner
W2
Daron Cruickshank
"Detroit Superstar"
19-10
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—