Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jake Ellenberger
Nate Marquardt
68%
32%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
28
Age
Δ 6y
34
32-15
Career record
Δ 5 pp
36-19-2
W1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Ellenberger: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Marquardt: 13 sig / 0 TD
Jake Ellenberger
Nate Marquardt
26
Sig strikes landed
17
61
Sig strikes attempted
43
43
Total strikes landed
32
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.3
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
137s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
42%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
32-15
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
Blue corner
W1
Nate Marquardt
"The Great"
36-19-2
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Marquardt vs P…
—
L
UFC 109: Relentless
—