Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Carlos Condit
Johny Hendricks
78%
22%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
69"
29
Age
Δ 1y
30
32-15
Career record
Δ 2 pp
19-8
L1
Current streak
W5
5
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Condit: 42 sig / 0 TD ·
Hendricks: 30 sig / 12 TD
Carlos Condit
Johny Hendricks
48
Sig strikes landed
40
127
Sig strikes attempted
92
69
Total strikes landed
43
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.7
0.5
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
48s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
54%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Carlos Condit
"The Natural Born Killer"
32-15
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
L
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama
—
W
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
W5
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
19-8
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Da…
—