🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Georges St-Pierre vs Nick Diaz
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz
·Bell Centre
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Georges St-Pierre
Nick Diaz
80%
20%
Why
76"
Reach
76"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
27-2
Career record
Δ 23 pp
26-11
W4
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
St-Pierre: 105 sig / 9 TD ·
Diaz: 41 sig / 0 TD
Georges St-Pierre
Nick Diaz
92
Sig strikes landed
47
200
Sig strikes attempted
152
145
Total strikes landed
114
5.6
Takedowns landed
0.3
10.7
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
513s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
80%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Georges St-Pierre
"Rush"
27-2
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
W
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy
—
Blue corner
L1
Nick Diaz
26-11
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz
—