Prelims1
Bantamweight
Takeya Mizugaki vs Bryan Caraway
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Takeya Mizugaki
Bryan Caraway
51%
49%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
29
Age
Δ 1y
29
22-11-2
Career record
Δ 8 pp
22-9
W1
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Mizugaki: 67 sig / 0 TD ·
Caraway: 37 sig / 2 TD
Takeya Mizugaki
Bryan Caraway
28
Sig strikes landed
29
79
Sig strikes attempted
74
50
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.8
1.9
Takedowns attempted
6.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
76s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
46%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Takeya Mizugaki
22-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC Live: Sanchez vs Kampmann
—
Blue corner
W2
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
22-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—