Prelims1
Middleweight
Riki Fukuda vs Brad Tavares
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Riki Fukuda
Brad Tavares
62%
38%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
32
Age
Δ 7y
25
25-9
Career record
Δ 11 pp
22-13
W1
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Fukuda: 69 sig / 1 TD ·
Tavares: 116 sig / 0 TD
Riki Fukuda
Brad Tavares
43
Sig strikes landed
50
93
Sig strikes attempted
119
68
Total strikes landed
71
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.9
Takedowns attempted
4.3
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
103s
Control time
149s
Method
Decision
72%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Riki Fukuda
25-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
Blue corner
W2
Brad Tavares
22-13
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie v…
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 125: Resolution
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—