Prelims1
Lightweight
Cristiano Marcello vs Kazuki Tokudome
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
·Saitama Super Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Cristiano Marcello
Kazuki Tokudome
33%
67%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 1"
73"
35
Age
Δ 9y
26
W1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Marcello: 33 sig / 1 TD ·
Tokudome: 33 sig / 2 TD
Cristiano Marcello
Kazuki Tokudome
45
Sig strikes landed
51
114
Sig strikes attempted
116
58
Total strikes landed
62
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
81s
Control time
111s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
24%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Cristiano Marcello
14-6
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
Kazuki Tokudome
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
26