Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Stefan Struve
Mark Hunt
97%
3%
Why
84"
Reach
Δ 12"
72"
25
Age
Δ 14y
39
34-13
Career record
Δ 24 pp
14-14-1
W4
Current streak
W3
8
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Struve: 24 sig / 0 TD ·
Hunt: 47 sig / 1 TD
Stefan Struve
Mark Hunt
31
Sig strikes landed
18
57
Sig strikes attempted
34
43
Total strikes landed
26
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
0.4
Takedowns attempted
2.6
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
66s
Control time
163s
Method
Decision
5%
KO/TKO
58%
Submission
37%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Stefan Struve
"Skyscraper"
34-13
Career record
Height
83"
Reach
85"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—
L
UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill
—
Blue corner
W3
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
14-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
W
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch
—
L
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop
—