Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Marloes Coenen
Fiona Muxlow
93%
7%
Why
32
Age
Δ 4y
36
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Coenen: 19 sig / 0 TD ·
Muxlow: 5 sig / 0 TD
Marloes Coenen
Fiona Muxlow
48
Sig strikes landed
41
105
Sig strikes attempted
86
85
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
187s
Control time
115s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Marloes Coenen
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Age
32
Blue corner
Fiona Muxlow
0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Age
36