Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Hayato Sakurai
Phil Baroni
95%
5%
Why
37
Age
Δ 1y
37
W1
Current streak
—
3
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sakurai: 56 sig / 1 TD ·
Baroni: 51 sig / 2 TD
Hayato Sakurai
Phil Baroni
46
Sig strikes landed
30
81
Sig strikes attempted
64
56
Total strikes landed
44
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
94s
Control time
121s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
40%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Hayato Sakurai
"Mach"
39-13-2
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
DREAM - New Year! 2011
—
L
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
Phil Baroni
"The New York Bad Ass"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37