Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Satoru Kitaoka
Will Brooks
89%
11%
Why
33
Age
Δ 7y
26
L1
Current streak
—
2
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Kitaoka: 2 sig / 0 TD ·
Brooks: 55 sig / 2 TD
Satoru Kitaoka
Will Brooks
30
Sig strikes landed
44
83
Sig strikes attempted
88
48
Total strikes landed
70
2.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.30
144s
Control time
141s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
38%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Satoru Kitaoka
40-15-9
Career record
Height
66"
Age
33
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
DREAM - New Year! 2011
—
W
DREAM 17
—
Blue corner
Will Brooks
"Ill"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26