Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Hiroyuki Takaya
Georgi Karakhanyan
40%
60%
Why
36
Age
Δ 8y
28
W5
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Takaya: 34 sig / 0 TD ·
Karakhanyan: 73 sig / 3 TD
Hiroyuki Takaya
Georgi Karakhanyan
57
Sig strikes landed
47
139
Sig strikes attempted
137
76
Total strikes landed
66
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
1.3
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.60
Knockdowns
0.20
87s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Hiroyuki Takaya
"Streetfight Bancho"
22-14-2
Career record
Height
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
DREAM - New Year! 2011
—
W
DREAM - Japan GP Final
—
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 14
—
Blue corner
Georgi Karakhanyan
"Insane"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Age
28