Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Michihiro Omigawa
92%
8%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
35
Age
Δ 2y
37
37-11-2
Career record
Δ 19 pp
18-14-1
W4
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Kawajiri: 14 sig / 3 TD ·
Omigawa: 1 sig / 0 TD
Tatsuya Kawajiri
Michihiro Omigawa
34
Sig strikes landed
17
81
Sig strikes attempted
68
38
Total strikes landed
20
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.3
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.70
86s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
49%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Tatsuya Kawajiri
"Crusher"
37-11-2
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
DREAM - New Year! 2011
—
W
DREAM 17
—
W
DREAM - Japan GP Final
—
W
Dynamite!! 2010
—
L
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
W2
Michihiro Omigawa
18-14-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 15
—