Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Shinya Aoki
Antonio McKee
90%
10%
Why
30
Age
Δ 13y
43
W5
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Aoki: 5 sig / 2 TD ·
McKee: 3 sig / 1 TD
Shinya Aoki
Antonio McKee
29
Sig strikes landed
14
76
Sig strikes attempted
32
38
Total strikes landed
33
2.1
Takedowns landed
2.6
1.9
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
136s
Control time
155s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
51%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Shinya Aoki
"Tobikan Judan"
40-7
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 5-0
Last 5
W
DREAM - New Year! 2011
—
W
DREAM 17
—
W
DREAM - Fight for Japan
—
W
DREAM 16
—
W
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
Antonio McKee
"Mandingo"
0-0
Career record
Height
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
43