Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Melvin Manhoef
Denis Kang
48%
52%
Why
37
Age
Δ 1y
35
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Manhoef: 4 sig / 0 TD ·
Kang: 0 sig / 0 TD
Melvin Manhoef
Denis Kang
33
Sig strikes landed
39
66
Sig strikes attempted
69
46
Total strikes landed
65
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.6
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.80
Knockdowns
0.20
67s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
71%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Melvin Manhoef
"No Mercy"
30-15-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
DREAM 15
—
Blue corner
Denis Kang
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35