Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Bibiano Fernandes
Yoshiro Maeda
53%
47%
Why
33
Age
Δ 2y
31
21-3
Career record
Δ 26 pp
35-17-5
W2
Current streak
L3
4
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Fernandes: 1 sig / 1 TD ·
Maeda: 1 sig / 0 TD
Bibiano Fernandes
Yoshiro Maeda
41
Sig strikes landed
35
102
Sig strikes attempted
99
52
Total strikes landed
48
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.50
Knockdowns
0.60
114s
Control time
81s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
47%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Bibiano Fernandes
21-3
Career record
Height
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
DREAM - New Year! 2011
—
W
DREAM 17
—
L
Dynamite!! 2010
—
W
DREAM 13
—
Blue corner
L3
Yoshiro Maeda
35-17-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
68"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31
In our database
3 fights · 0-3
Last 3
L
DREAM - Fight for Japan
—
L
DREAM 14
—
L
DREAM 13
—