Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael Chiesa
Anton Kuivanen
62%
38%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
25
Age
Δ 4y
29
21-7
Career record
Δ 4 pp
25-10
W1
Current streak
W1
1
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Chiesa: 5 sig / 1 TD ·
Kuivanen: 18 sig / 0 TD
Michael Chiesa
Anton Kuivanen
27
Sig strikes landed
15
61
Sig strikes attempted
43
47
Total strikes landed
34
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.3
4.0
Takedowns attempted
2.3
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
149s
Control time
164s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
34%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
21-7
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Fina…
—
Blue corner
W1
Anton Kuivanen
25-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—