Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Brendan Schaub
Lavar Johnson
55%
45%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 4"
82"
30
Age
Δ 6y
36
10-6
Career record
Δ 0 pp
18-11
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Schaub: 18 sig / 5 TD ·
Johnson: 36 sig / 1 TD
Brendan Schaub
Lavar Johnson
24
Sig strikes landed
37
56
Sig strikes attempted
65
39
Total strikes landed
53
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
110s
Control time
73s
Method
Decision
27%
KO/TKO
66%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brendan Schaub
"Big Brown"
10-6
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
L
UFC 134: Silva vs Okami
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
L1
Lavar Johnson
"Big"
18-11
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
82"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC on FOX: Evans vs Davis
—