Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Dennis Bermudez
Matt Grice
62%
38%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 4"
70"
26
Age
Δ 5y
32
18-9
Career record
Δ 10 pp
16-5
W2
Current streak
W1
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Bermudez: 120 sig / 0 TD ·
Grice: 82 sig / 1 TD
Dennis Bermudez
Matt Grice
33
Sig strikes landed
30
70
Sig strikes attempted
63
57
Total strikes landed
55
1.7
Takedowns landed
1.4
3.9
Takedowns attempted
4.4
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
192s
Control time
170s
Method
Decision
67%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Dennis Bermudez
"The Menace"
18-9
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II
—
W
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisp…
—
Blue corner
W1
Matt Grice
"The Real One"
16-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
L
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry
—