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Prelims1 Lightweight

Sam Stout vs Caros Fodor

Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Sam Stout
Caros Fodor
62% 38%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 4"
74"
29
Age
Δ 0y
29
L1
Current streak
7
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Stout: 46 sig / 1 TD · Fodor: 47 sig / 3 TD
Sam Stout
Caros Fodor
58
Sig strikes landed
51
145
Sig strikes attempted
123
75
Total strikes landed
57
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.4
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
139s
Control time
70s
Method
Decision
70%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Sam Stout

"Hands of Stone"
20-13-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
L UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
W UFC on FX: Maynard vs Guida
L UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes
W UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin
W UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Blue corner

Caros Fodor

"The Future"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29