Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Josh Koscheck
Robbie Lawler
33%
67%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 1"
74"
35
Age
Δ 4y
31
L1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Koscheck: 2 sig / 2 TD ·
Lawler: 9 sig / 0 TD
Josh Koscheck
Robbie Lawler
26
Sig strikes landed
37
72
Sig strikes attempted
78
48
Total strikes landed
52
2.0
Takedowns landed
0.5
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.7
0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
242s
Control time
71s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Josh Koscheck
17-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller
—
W
UFC 143: Diaz vs Condit
—
W
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage
—
L
UFC 124: St-Pierre vs Koscheck 2
—
W
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
0-0
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
31