Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Court McGee
Josh Neer
41%
59%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
72"
28
Age
Δ 2y
30
23-15
Career record
Δ 6 pp
36-17-1
L2
Current streak
L2
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
McGee: 166 sig / 2 TD ·
Neer: 63 sig / 0 TD
Court McGee
Josh Neer
53
Sig strikes landed
47
139
Sig strikes attempted
106
80
Total strikes landed
51
1.0
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
145s
Control time
89s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Court McGee
"The Crusher"
23-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L
UFC on FX: Alves vs Kampmann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
W
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Lidd…
—
Blue corner
L2
Josh Neer
"The Dentist"
36-17-1
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC on FX: Browne vs Bigfoot
—
L
UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall
—
W
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller
—
W
UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson
—