Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Urijah Faber
Ivan Menjivar
79%
21%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 3"
64"
34
Age
Δ 3y
31
35-12
Career record
Δ 6 pp
26-12
L1
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Faber: 17 sig / 0 TD ·
Menjivar: 3 sig / 1 TD
Urijah Faber
Ivan Menjivar
43
Sig strikes landed
41
109
Sig strikes attempted
108
56
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.4
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
104s
Control time
52s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Urijah Faber
"The California Kid"
35-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—
L
UFC 132: Cruz vs Faber
—
W
UFC 128: Shogun vs Jones
—
Blue corner
W1
Ivan Menjivar
"The Pride of El Salvador"
26-12
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit
—
L
UFC 148: Silva vs Sonnen 2
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Sanchez vs Elle…
—
W
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—