Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Lyoto Machida
Dan Henderson
61%
39%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
35
Age
Δ 8y
42
25-8
Career record
Δ 7 pp
33-15
W1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Machida: 27 sig / 1 TD ·
Henderson: 20 sig / 1 TD
Lyoto Machida
Dan Henderson
36
Sig strikes landed
29
82
Sig strikes attempted
63
46
Total strikes landed
58
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
101s
Control time
124s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Lyoto Machida
"The Dragon"
25-8
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera
—
L
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—
W
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields
—
L
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida
—
L
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2
—
Blue corner
W1
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
33-15
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
43
In our database
1 fight · 1-0
Last 1
W
UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson
—