Back to UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche
🏆 Title fight Main Women's Bantamweight

Ronda Rousey vs Liz Carmouche

UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche ·Honda Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ronda Rousey
Liz Carmouche
74% 26%
Why
66"
Reach
66"
26
Age
Δ 3y
29

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Rousey: 7 sig / 1 TD · Carmouche: 4 sig / 0 TD
Ronda Rousey
Liz Carmouche
54
Sig strikes landed
41
102
Sig strikes attempted
88
86
Total strikes landed
70
1.0
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
148s
Control time
188s
Method
Decision
37%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Ronda Rousey

"Rowdy"
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner

Liz Carmouche

"Girlrilla"
0-0
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29